Updating My Bio

I'm a Staff Writer once again for Pinstripe Alley.

It's a nice thing to be able to go home again. I feel really honored that the staff agreed to let me come back as an analyst and to write on my own schedule.

I'm looking forward to really dedicating my baseball work to Pinstripe Alley and focusing ...andalittlewine... on books and my little life adventures.

Word of the Week

o·ver·pay

ˌōvərˈpā/

verb

verb: overpay; 3rd person present: overpays; past tense: overpaid; past participle: overpaid; gerund or present participle: overpaying

1.

pay (someone) too highly.

"many fans think our top players are overpaid"

Happy Aaron Boone Day

This was ten years ago today.

I was sitting on my raised bunk in Middle Hall, trying to teach a girl about baseball. 3 outs, tagging up on an out, the double play, extra innings.

Boone swung, and I leapt up so high I cracked my head against the ceiling.

Everything Ends

from here

I know I have words for the end of a baseball season, but I know it's all been said before and more beautifully than I can. As a baseball fan, the end of the year feels the same to me whether my Yankees win a championship, or lose in the playoffs, or (like this year) limp quietly into the end of September.

There is always an emptiness at the end of a season. In a way that New Year's or birthdays or anniversaries don't, the end of a year of baseball marks time. There hasn't been a forgettable year yet, though I've begun to find the oldest ones beginning to blur together.

This year, the Yankees have marked so many endings: for Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte; for their recent four year run of playoff berths; for the unconditional commitment of ownership to field a dominant team. Meanwhile, I've marked so many beginnings: mainly, that my wife and I bought a house; my re-dedication to my poetry and the acceptance of a couple of my poems; a couple of projects, like my woodworking, that I hope begin a way of life. But I'm winterizing that house, and re-arranging the garage to store my summer toys, and having just marked the fall equinox, spring has never been farther way.

It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone. You count on it, rely on it to buffer the passage of time, to keep the memory of sunshine and high skies alive, and then just when the days are all twilight, when you need it most, it stops....

Of course, there are those who learn after the first few times. They grow out of sports. And there are others who were born with the wisdom to know that nothing lasts. These are the truly tough among us, the ones who can live without illusion, or without even the hope of illusion. I am not that grown-up or up-to-date. I am a simpler creature, tied to more primitive patterns and cycles. I need to think something lasts forever, and it might as well be that state of being that is a game; it might as well be that, in a green field, in the sun.

 Bart Giamatti

A September to Remember for the Yankees

With two teams to leapfrog in order to have a shot at a Wild Card spot, at this point, it's hard to imagine the Yankees losing any games and still making the playoffs.

4 losses in the next 26 games will make the Yanks miss the 95 win mark for the first time since 2008.

If the Bombers take two out of three from the While Sox, split their 6 games with the Red Sox, go 2-2 in their remaining four games against the Orioles, and take 2 out of 3 from each of the Jays, Giants, Rays and Astros, that would only get the Yankees to 87 wins.

They probably can't slip ahead of the Rays and Orioles without sweeping both teams. That would get the Yankees to 90 wins.

The Yankees find themselves in the position of having to root for the Red Sox to win the division, because Boston plays 9 of their final 24 games against the Rays and Os.

The Yankees Have No Choice But to Look Forward to August

August could be the month that the Yankees fall out of contention. It could also be the month they surge into the playoffs. And it could also be the month they find out that getting under the $189M luxury tax "reset" for next year is a lot easier because of Arod's suspension.

Because the Yankees had a lot of games against good teams, I only wanted them to go 16-10 in July.

They only went 14-12, in part because of a disappointing 5-7 record after the All Star break. We're right to worry about CC Sabathia's health going forward, but the offense has finally received a boost with the return of Derek Jeter and the arrival of Alfonso Soriano. With Curtis Granderson coming off the DL tomorrow, some of the bench players who have served as regulars most of the season will have a chance to return to their envisioned roles and the lineup will again boast a familiar resume, though the numbers aren't there yet for 2013.

August opens with two series against bottom dwellers, the Padres and White Sox, before the Yankees host the Tigers and Angels at Yankee Stadium. They run to Boston for a weekend, then come back to the Stadium for a four game set against the Blue Jays. Then down to Tampa, up to Toronto and then back to New York for the Orioles.

That's 17 games against non-contenders (Padres, ChiSox, Angels, Jays) and only 11 games against contenders (Tigers, BoSox, Rays, Orioles). If the Yanks go 11-6 against the non-contenders and 6-5 against the contenders, their 17-11 record would probably be their best record since April. More importantly, with most of their games in the division, they have a chance to close the gap that separates them from the top of the division.

A Few Reasonable Yankee Trades

Well gang, 1992 has not been kind to our beloved Yankees. At 42-48, we're headed to our 6th straight season in the lower tier of the AL East. We haven't really been in the hunt in that stretch, and the 1981 pennant was a long time ago.

The path we're on isn't going to get us anywhere. We've got to blow it up and rebuild.

So I suggest these three trades:

1. Don Mattingly to the Brewers for Dave Nilson and Cal EldredYes, he's in the third year of the richest contract in MLB history, but he's not impossible to move. And while he's still a Gold Glover, let's be honest: this version of Donnie is a long way from the MVP we knew.

Nilson is an MLB ready catcher, which isn't an area of need for the Brewers with BJ Surhoff entrenched behind the plate. Nilson was rated the #27 prospect in baseball before this season. Yes, I hear that the AAA ball park in Denver is a real hitters park, so Nilson might not repeat his .317/.369/.479 line at the big league level, but this guy is a catcher who can hit. He can split time with Nokes behind the plate.
Eldred is a big right hander, who was a first round pick only 3 years ago, and if Denver is a hitter's park, it's not slowing Eldred down. He's allowing only 1.16 baserunners per inning and he's got an ERA of 3.00.

Losing Donnie would hurt, but the Yankees are a few years from really contending, and Nilson and Eldred will help more than the Captain.

2. Steve Farr for Kevin YoungThe Pirates look like a great team, but I think they need a little more to win the World Series, and with Bonds, Drabek and Bueschle's contracts all up they are in "win now" mode. 

Farr (1.54 ERA and 1.02 baserunners per inning) would instantly be the best arm in their bullpen and would help kill any late rallies.

Young is a great looking third baseman/ first baseman. The knock against him is that as a righty, he couldn't take advantage of Yankee Stadium's short porch. But he and Pat Kelly would be a young right side of the infield for a long time.

3. Prospects for Pedro Martinez
The Yanks have already got #1 prospect in the league Brien Taylor burning up the system, why not go after #10? The Dodgers are in such sorry shape that they need quantity. Offer them Bernie Williams and Carl Everett and see if they want to rebuild their outfield (since the Stawberry rehab tour is going so well in LA). With Hall, Kelly and Tartabull all in long term deals, the Bombers don't need the outfield prospects.

So what do you think of my plan? Do this, and by 1994 we'll be coasting to the pennant and the World Series.

Come on Stick, make it happen! Stop sitting on your hands!

Also posted at the Pinstriped Bible.

The Yankees in July

Well, I said in my last baseball post that the end of June would be make or break time for the Yankees, asking for just 14-10 from June 5-June 30, and the broken down lineup the team ran-out for the last couple of weeks... well, it broke.

The team was actually 11-11 for the month at the start of play on June 25th. And then they embarked on their current 5 game losing streak, finishing 11-16.

But we knew June would be rough, and that's before Mark Teixeira and Kevin Youkilis had season ending surgery, before Andy Pettitte posted an ERA a shade below 5 for the month, before the Vernon Wells recovery tour bottomed out at .133/.143/.147.

There's no reason July should be different for the Yankees. The offense is not of a caliber to swing it with Boston and Baltimore and even Toronto. So if the pitching isn't perfect, this team has no comeback potential.

The End of June Could be Make or Break for the Yankees

The adage is to take 2 out of 3 from the second tier teams and play .500 against the contenders. If we call contenders any team that finished within 3 of the second Wild Card spot, our 2013 American League contenders are the Orioles, the Rays, the Tigers, the A's and the Rangers.

So the start of June sort of snuck up on me. Last time I checked in, I was rooting for the Yankees to go 19-11 from April 30 to May 31.

It was a lofty goal, but the Yankees were playing a lot of second tier teams: the Royals, the Blue Jays, the Mets (more on that in a minute).

And you know what? On May 26th a loss to the Rays dropped the Yankees to 15-9 before a 4 game set against the Mets and a game against the Red Sox. I would have put money on at least 18-11. Instead the Yanks got swept before picking up the one game against Boston. They finished May 16-13, and then dropped the first two games of May against the Sox.

Counting today's game, the Yankees have 13 games against contenders, and 10 against non-contenders. The end of June is a particularly brutal stretch against teams with very good to great pitching (Rays, Rangers, Orioles). All the same, if the Yankees are a playoff bound team, they'll need to go 7-6 against the contenders and 7-4 against the rest.

14-10. A few games over .500 in June would be great, because the first two weeks of July bring a chance to win a lot of games. Just keep the head above water until then.

The Yankees Are Exactly What You Should Expect

It's all about the guys who throw the ball.

All of the Yankees stars are hurt. You might have heard about it. On Opening Day, only two position players from last year's starting nine were on the field: the second baseman and the center fielder (who played left on Opening Day 2012).

But CC Sabathia was still pitching, if differently. Hiroki Kuroda isn't slowing down, and neither is Andy Pettitte (despite last night's whooping at the hands of the hapless Astros). Phil Hughes has looked better the farther he moves from his Spring Training back injury. Ivan Nova on the DL after an unimpressive string of starts, but David Phelps and Adam Warren are on the roster to solve exactly that problem.

Pitching wins. Slap together whatever lineup you want, and if you get good pitching, you can win the game.

The Yankees' Injuries, Expectations, and the Slow Start of 2012

I've missed most of the last two weeks of baseball. I work at a college; today is reunion, tomorrow is graduation. It's been a little hectic.

I hesitated before writing a baseball post, since I've been living off of box scores and highlight reels. The AL East standings are upside down, which is not unexpected this early in the season. The Yankees' run differential (the separation between runs scored and runs allowed), sits at +11. That's good, but not great.

At this point in the season, with a performance like that, you'd expect the Yankees to be 21-18. And they are.

The team has had an unlucky string of injuries. The 3 headed beast of the bullpen is down to its weakest head, with Mariano Rivera and David Robertson on the DL. It feels like I haven't seen Brett Gardner since Spring Training, and I never got to see Michael Pineda throw a pitch. The 2012 Yankees were supposed to be machine-like. They were going to play in shades of 1998. And then the machine broke down.

As Yankee fans, we live with the weight of history. In recent years, the Yankee corporation has gone overboard celebrating this fact: at Yankee Stadium, baseball history is the unbroken string of pinstriped championship parades. And whenever someone want to remind us of that, they just need to mention 1965.

In 1964, the Yankees won the pennant but lost the World Series in 7 games to the Cardinals. They won the pennant the year before that. They won the World Series the year before that, and the World Series the year before that, and a pennant before that.

But in 1965, the Yankees got old and the wheels fell off and nothing was ever the same. Aside from a couple championships bought in the late '70s at the birth of free agency, it would take the Yankees 30 years to right the ship.

I don't think this is 1965, despite Arod's lack of power, despite the vanished pitching surplus, despite Mark Teixeira's sub-.300 OBP. I expect the team to round into form, and to move up in the standings as they start to win games against their division rivals.

But there seem to be a lot of rivals this year. The 2012 AL East has the makings of the toughest division since the current divisions were formed in 1994. And everyone loves to beat the Yankees.

Rivera and Age

I wrote my farewell to Mariano Rivera over at Pinstripe Alley this morning. The greatest closer of all time twisted his knee, tearing a ligament that will end his season and likely end his career.

Age comes, eventually. The pulse in your wrist is a clock winding down, as though we need more reminders.

But that is why we keep coming back to the game. It grows as we grow old, and the more of the history we have lived, heard of, or read about, the richer the game becomes. That's what makes Derek Jeter's march up the all-time hit list enjoyable- not the number, but the stories revived by each number.

This morning, my heart is breaking for one of the greatest ball players I will ever see. Tonight, there will be a game.

Excited to See David Phelps Added to the Yankees' Rotation

In nearly 600 minor league innings, Ivan Nova never posted impressive numbers until the 2010 season in Triple-A, and even then, he was strong but not eye-popping.

In just under 400 minor league games, Brett Gardner was a slap hitting fourth outfielder, right up until he posted a .345 OBP, helping the Yankees to a championship as part of the center-field platoon. After that, the Brian Cashman and Co were confident enough in Gardner to trade away Melky Cabrera.

Who's to say what David Phelps will bring to the team when the 25 year-old takes his first turn in the Yankees' rotation? His minor league numbers look better than Ivan Nova's (fewer BB/9, more K/9) over 500 innings of work. On the other hands, Phil Hughes' numbers look worlds better than Nova's, yet few Yankee fans would give Hughes the ball.

I've been thinking about prospects, hype, and the MLB learning curve a fair amount lately. Hughes seems to be pitching his way back to the bulpen; uber-prospects Mike Trout and Bryce Harper are back in the bigs; Delmon Young's attitude is making more headlines than his bat.

I could run through the numbers, but the generalities are fairly common knowledge: after the first 10-15 players in a draft in any given year, who's a superstar and who's average and who's a bust becomes a crap shoot.

So, don't be surprised if David Phelps becomes the latest underrated anchor in the Yankees' rotation.

Small Housekeeping Note: Old Book Reviews

I've gone through my old book reviews over at Pinstripe Alley, and copied them all to this blog under the tags for books, Yankees and baseball.

Setting Up the Yankees' Starting Rotation

Our pitchers:

Pitcher	FB	Slider	Cutter	Curve	Change	Split
Sabathia	62.1% (93.5)	16.2% (81.0)		6.1% (78.1)	15.6% (85.4)
Kuroda	60.8% (92.0)	21.1% (84.3)		4.6% (78.7)		13.6% (87.1)
Hughes	63.0% (92.3)	1.5% (82.0)	11.6% (88.3)	19.8% (74.8)	4.0% (82.9)
Pineda	62.2% (94.7)	31.5% (84.1)			6.3% (87.6)
Nova	62.0% (92.7)	9.6% (85.7)		22.6% (80.1)	5.8% (85.6)

All of our guys throw their fastballs a lot (and with Kuroda the soft-tosser at 92 mph, it's not hard to understand why).

Only Sabathia is a lefty, so handedness isn't really a factor.

Sabathia, Kuroda and Pineda all use their slider as their #2 pitch. Sabathia and Pineda follow that with the change as their #3, though of course Pineda was nearly a 2 pitch pitcher last season. Regardless, I wouldn't let Sabathia and Pineda pitch back to back.

Similarly, Hughes and Nova both rely on their curveballs as their follow up pitches. I'd keep them apart.
The question, for me, revolves around whether or not Kuroda should pitch in the #2 spot. All three of the young guys depend (or will depend) on their change up to keep hitters honest. How similar are these pitches? Pineda and Nova's speeds are similar with their change, but I can't speak to the drop or fade of either pitch. Pitch fx will give you some of the data, but I think the ultimate decision needs to be made by someone who can evaluate the pitches from inside the batter's box.

It may be that the Yankees would be better served by Sabathia, Nova, Kuroda, Pineda, Hughes, rather than Sabathia, Kuroda, Nova, Pineda, Hughes. Either way seems acceptable to baseball etiquette- with Nova in the #2 spot, you recognize his breakout work with the team last season and his team first mentality following his midseason demotion and return; with Kuroda in the #2 spot, you show deference to the veteran.

Ultimately, I think questions like this are more interesting in the playoffs or in a short series- the regular season will smooth over most of the advantages or disadvantages of one choice or the other.

Also published as a fanshot over at Pinstripe Alley

Disappointed by the Yankees and Raul Ibanez

The Yankees used some of the money from their trade of AJ Burnett today to sign OF Raul Ibanez.

This is tremendously disappointing.

Last year, against right handed pitching, Ibanez managed an anemic .256/.307/.440. As a point of reference, that's just about the same as the line that pushed Jorge Posada into retirement. No Yankee got 60 ABs in 2011 with an OBP that low.

What makes the deal tremendously disappointing, however, is how lousy Ibanez is in the field. Let's not talk about how UZR ranked him as the second worst fielder in the entire major leagues last year- UZR has its flaws, and I'm certainly not inclined to take it as gospel. Let's just talk about how Ibanez was never considered a brilliant defender, and he is now headed into his age 40 season.

If this guy gets time in the field, it means one of Swisher, Granderson or Gardner is on the bench. After a couple seasons of stellar outfield defense, it'll be hard for me to adjust to the sight of another Gary Sheffield level defender patrolling Yankee Stadium.

A Wild Yankees-Angels Trade Scenario

The New York Yankees have been surprisingly quiet this offseason. This is likely the convergence of all the imaginable factors: the age and composition of the roster, this specific moment in the midst of the Yankees' expiring contracts, the new CBA and the lowering boom of the payroll tax.


But I wonder if the biggest reason for the front office's seeming complacency is just what it seems: from 1995-2011, the Yankees made the playoffs every year but one, usually while leading the league in dollar spent; but starting in 2012, the Yankees no longer need to be the best team in baseball, nor the best team in the AL East, nor the second best- thanks to the shiny new second wildcard, the Yankees trust that they no longer need to push so hard to make the playoffs.

So, maybe just maybe, the Yankees figure they can afford to jettison some talent now in exchange for cheaper future roster options.

For my mild trade proposal, check out Pinstripe Alley.

***

The Yankees don't need brilliance to make the playoffs, and once you make it to the dance, all you need is luck.

So the Yankees send two arbitration eligible players to the Angels: Brett Gardner and David Robertson.

In exchange, the Yankees get an MLB ready top pitching prospect, a mid-level 3B prospect, a veteran outfielder, and cash: RHP Garrett Richards, 3B Luis Jiminez, Torii Hunter and several million dollars to offset some of Hunter's salary.

Why do the Yankees do this? 
Gardner and Robertson's price tag is due to rise in the near future, and while they will still be inexpensive, they are both players whose bubbles could burst soon and brutally. While I love Gardner's patience at the plate, his slap and run approach will give no warnings of decline (see Ichiro). Robertson's strike outs are sexy, but the walks are something less beautiful. Instead, the Yankees get another starting pitcher on the brink of big league success, a corner bat worth watching, and a chance to rewrite the future of the franchise with young starting pitching. Now the Yankees top ten pitching prospects features 7 starters ready to take the ball at the big league level (Richards, Banuelos, Betances, Noesi, Warren, Mitchell, Phelps).

Why do the Angels do this? 
With CJ Wilson in the fold, the Angels currently boast 6 starting pitchers, so the use of Richards as a trade chip should hurt less than it normally would. Instead they send a speedy youth movement into the outfield, with Peter Bourjos, Gardner and Mike Trout chasing down everything in the park. They pitch a starting rotation 3 aces deep and hand the ball over to a 3 headed monster in Robertson-Takahashi-Downs in front of closer Jordan Walden. With Pujols hitting third, they walk to the division title and enter the playoffs the World Series favorites.

The Yankees, confident in their arms and their (aging) offense play a long term game while the Angels go all in to build a juggernaut ready to win multiple pennants in the next 3-5 years.

The Yankees and the Best Interest of Baseball

Let me start by saying I love Dave Cameron's work. For me, he's in the second tier of great baseball writers currently working (the first tier is a club of one: Joe Poz). I'm really, really picky about whose work I read regularly, but Cameron is one of the few I come back to again and again.

All of this is a way of saying I'm not trying to pick a fight when I think the premise for his most recent anti-Yankee article is surprisingly nuance-less.

To sum up his key points: the Yankees exist in a different monetary universe than the other 29 clubs by virtue of their domination of the largest media market in the country, and this is bad for baseball because "when one organization can simply put aside cost as a significant factor in their evaluation of whether or not they should acquire a player, they’re simply not bound by the same factors as the other franchises."

I'd agree with the final conclusion: even if it's ok for teams to exist in separate payroll strata because of their popularity/ home territory, it's not ok for the top strata to belong exclusively to a single organization.

The Yankees' primary advantage comes from two compounded areas: the population of New York City with it's influence on attendance, and the profitability of the Yankee owned goliath the YES Network. The first factor, population, is close to intractable. The second issue is simply (if inexactly) controllable.

My steps to introducing balance to MLB (notice, I didn't say restoring balance; there's a false narrative floating around that at some mythical past time, the playing field was leveler. In fact, for long stretches of baseball history, the Yankees dominated more easily because there was no revenue sharing, no media deals to create alternatives to box office revenue, and no luxury tax [distinct from revenue sharing] to support small market teams; this reality helped create the Yankee "golden age" including the sale of Babe Ruth and Red Ruffing from Boston, the bonus babies of the '47-'65, and the Kansas City A's pipeline that fed to Yankee Stadium).

1) Make all teams open up their books.
Be transparent. The only reason to keep this information secret is that the books are crooked (I expect that for most teams they are; I suspect that few owners, if any, have ever lost money on their team).


2) Tax revenue instead of payroll.
At the moment, most of MLB's taxes are payroll dependent. This is basically an attempt to force all teams into the "window of opportunity" cycle that small market teams exist in.

3) Tax different revenue streams at different rates.
If the problem is that the Yankees can pour the money from their tv deal back into the team (I don't really think it's a problem per se, but I'll allow that it may be a problem that the Yankees can do this on a scale that the Seattle Mariners can not. For instance, Box Office sales above $X may be taxed at 10% while TV revenue above $X may be taxed at 25% and above $2X be taxed at 35%.


4) Incentivize success.
You want to know why the Yankees spend so much to win? Because it makes them the most money. Want to know why the Pittsburgh Pirates spend so little? Because it makes them the most money.
Create tax credits for successful franchises, and improvement benchmarks for struggling franchises. Don't let the owner of a small or mid-market franchise pocket millions season after season. I'd create a profit ceiling, a level of shareholder profit above which revenue sharing funds are withdrawn. So if I'm the Pirates (who reportedly turned 8 figure profits in '07 and '08), and I'm writing all these checks to shareholders, then I'm obviously not pouring this money back into the team. So I don't need it, and it can go instead to a team trying to win.

The Yankees, Payroll, and the Free Agent Market

"No decision on Swisher has been made yet,'' the source said.

I can think of only one reason: the Yankees are deciding how to allocate their money, and it's possible they think they'd rather spend that $10.25M on a pitcher rather than Nick Swisher.

The dynasty Yankees had a platoon of fair to good players in left field, but the top rotation in the league. The teams that return to the postseason year after year, while all need an offense (see: Giants, 2011), they need starting pitching more.

I would be sad to see Nick Swisher leave, especially because there's no one in the system who I think can handle right field every day. But I'd be thrilled if Swisher leaving meant Darvish, or Buehrle, or even a trade for one of the high quality starters at the end of their arbitration years.

More pitching can only be good for the Yankees.

Book Review: The Long Vigil by Jerome Charyn

Originally published on Pinstripe Alley

Jerome Charyn's Joe DiMaggio: The Long Vigil makes a fascinating piece of social anthropology, centered on the exploration of DiMaggio's relationship with Marilyn Monroe, how it captured national attention, and how it has resonance as a cultural touchstone.

Mining the wealth of biographies and documentaries about Joe D. and Marilyn, Charyn's slender volume is clearly a labor of love. He writes of living in the Bronx and following Joe's post-war exploits as a boy.

Charyn is puzzled by DiMaggio: "Why did his intensity and terrifying heat in center field diminish away from the field and leave him with so little sense of purpose?" Charyn writes in the prologue. "Why did [DiMaggio] become so dysfunctional and end his days in a golden ghetto, frightened of his own fame yet needing to guard it with a stubborn, maddening will?"